Million dollars? For the baseball player? People could hardly believe it.
In November of 1979, Nolan Ryan and the Houston Astros agreed to a four-year, $4 million agreement, making the Texans the first player in MLB history to make at least $1 million annually. Journalists and the public quickly dubbed him the “Million Dollar Man.” It's been a headline-grabbing, paradigm-changing decade — proof that the sport has changed and continues to change.
The advent of free agency in the 1970s, which resulted from a series of player-led labor fights, caused contract values to skyrocket. Ryan and the game's other big stars are finally getting what they deserve. However, the sticker shock of that big, fat, round number associated with Ryan's name made it difficult for some fans to wrap their heads around.
Oh, if only they could see us now.
The ink had hardly settled on Juan Soto's ink A historic and amazing agreement worth $765 million With the New York Mets. It's a huge number, and it could grow even bigger. If Soto opts out after 2029 and the Mets choose to keep him by adding $4 million to each of the final 10 years of the agreement, that $765 million would turn into more than $800 million.
It is a mountain peak that will not be climbed again for some time.
Soto, of course, Jill. The bidding war for his services was also magnified by the perfect storm: Facing New York Between two of the richest teams in the game. But Soto aside, the current MLB landscape isn't particularly mature with young stars rushing toward the open market. Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Chorio, and Corbin Carroll all signed lengthy extensions that would prevent them from hitting free agency at an early age. There is no obvious candidate to overtake Soto.
But similar things have certainly been said about Ryan and that first class of baseball millionaires. The idea of a baseball player earning a billion dollars would rattle the mental circuit boards of any ball fan in the early 21st century. But time passes, money becomes more expensive, and our expectations change.
This means: One day, a top player will sign a billion-dollar contract. Who would that be? Let's dive down this rabbit hole and look irresponsibly.
First, a note about age
Soto's contract could be worth up to $800 million, largely because the contract is for 15 years. Still only 26 years old, Soto's massive payday was made possible by his MLB debut at 19 years old.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, widely considered superior players to Soto during the free agent sweepstakes, received “only” $360 million and $460 million of current value because they hit the market at 30 and 29 respectively.
It pays to be young. Thus, anyone who eventually crosses the nine-figure threshold will need to get to the big, free agencies as soon as possible.
And on the situation
Unless we make huge advances in medical technology, the first billion-dollar player will be a central player. Elbows are simply too fragile, and pitchers are too susceptible to wear and tear.
If Paul Skins wants a contract that starts with the letter B, he'll have to start hitting again like he did in college.
Gunnar Henderson, Eli de la Cruz or Jackson Merrill
These three are grouped together because they represent a similar archetype: a very good, very young player with a tendency to go before free agency. Henderson, who is 23 years old and has more career bWAR already amassed than Nick Castellanos, is the best of the trio. He is also a client of agent Scott Boras, the man who negotiated the massive Soto deal. But Henderson (1) will hit free agency two years older than Soto and (2) doesn't yet have Soto's undoubted offensive record. It is unlikely, but it is He could Getting there.
For De La Cruz, who is also represented by Borras, the question is about his ceiling; No one in the world offers such an exciting combination of speed and power. But teams are sure to have concerns about how the 6-foot-6 shortstop will age. Soto's value was focused entirely on his bat, something clubs believed would not fade over time.
Merrill, who made his debut last season at age 21, is on this list simply because he is an exceptionally skilled young hitter who, barring an extension, will hit free agency upon entering his age-27 season. Will he be the first billion dollar player? Probably not, but then again, no one thought Soto would make $800 million when he debuted.
Jackson Holiday or Junior Caminero
Baltimore's baby-faced player was an absolute disappointment in his debut season in 2024. But the former No. 1 prospect did something very important in this stupid exercise: He made his debut at age 20. This means he will be a free agent heading into his age-27 season. Holiday, you know, still has to develop into a generational player, but the bones are here.
Caminero, who was born a few months before Holiday, will hit the open market in 2031, at the same time as Holiday. Tampa Bay's third baseman has also shown a bit more efficiency than his division counterpart in 2024, although there is still a long way to go before free agent payday.
Arjun Nimala
Well, follow me on this one.
Nimmala, who was drafted by the Blue Jays 20th overall in 2023, took a big developmental step forward in Low-A last season. But that's not why it's on the list. To make a billion dollars, you have to be a cash draw. Nimala, an Indian-American who spent summers as a child visiting family in India, has a chance to break into a new market as a global star.
Rangers outfielder Kumar Rocker became the first major leaguer in the MLB when he debuted in 2024, but Nimala, currently 19 years old, has a chance to move the needle even further, both as a position player and as a player who can reach the major leagues in Young age. In the (highly unlikely) scenario that Nimmala figures out, becoming one of the best players in MLB and making the most populous country in the world fall in love with baseball, well, that might be worth a billion dollars.
Leodalis de Vries
The 18-year-old Dominican outfielder was signed by the Padres less than a year ago, but he's already making a splash. San Diego sent him to Low-A Lake Elsinore last season, where de Vries held his own despite being the youngest player in the entire league. He has struggled somewhat in the Arizona Fall League but remains a very exciting prospect.
There is a scenario, though unlikely, in which the Padres, who have a track record of getting their players up the ladder, push de Vries to the major leagues at some point next season. That could make him a free agent heading into his age-24 or age-25 season — even younger than Soto. Of course, for that to be important in this exercise, it also has to be really good.
Ethan Holiday
Jackson's brother and Matt's second son are considered by many forecasters to be the best possibilities In the upcoming 2025 MLB Draft. Ethan is much larger and more physical than his older brother, which gives him higher power potential and makes cornerback a more likely defensive position. The younger Holiday will have to fly his way into whatever farm system he lands in, but the offensive ceiling is there. However, perhaps not for a billion dollars.
The most likely answer
At the recent Winter Meetings, I toured the building and asked several baseball players within the organizations that billion-dollar question. The most common, almost unanimous, response was: We don't know his name yet.
Almost everyone I spoke to believes that the Billion Dollar Boy is already walking this Earth, likely somewhere in Japan or the Dominican Republic right now, but Billion Dollar Day is too far away for us to know anything about man. In question.
2024-12-17 22:33:18
